Nationals at Tigers: Miss

The pick

Result

Miss -1.00u

Record after this brick

13–15 · -2.06u

Recap, Sep 23, 2026

Nationals 4, Tigers 2 — combined total 6. Over 7.5 is a miss.

Our 8:00 backup pick (Astros +108) was replaced before first pitch by the desk's cleared call, Over 7.5, and that's the one on the record.

Zeroes through five. First run came in the sixth: Washington three, Tigers one. Another Nationals run in the seventh and a Tigers run in the ninth closed it at six, a run and a half short.

The thesis leaned on Richard Lovelady's walk volume (1.84 WHIP, 21 walks in 32.2) into a home Tigers order on a total already in from eight to 7.5. Lovelady lasted 1.1 with one walk and no runs — free-pass volume never became the engine. Framber Valdez worked 5.1, two earned on three walks; enough of a lid while early innings stayed empty.

The fade we named showed: if Lovelady found the zone through the first turn and both middles stayed quiet, Valdez could keep 7.5 out of reach. First five blank on both sides. Once the sixth broke open, the rest never stacked enough to threaten seven-and-a-half.

Six runs, final. The over never got a look after that quiet front half.